Mumbai (Commoditiescontrol) – Despite strong rise in Indian Soyabean prices, mustard seed witnessed range-bound trade with no fresh demand and higher crop outlook. NCDEX active month contract during the week went high up to INR 3876, however with sluggish domestic fundamentals prices fell back to INR 3866 during closing of week.
Data by the farm ministry show that the area under mustard-seed cultivation has not only surpassed last year's level by "2% but is also 11% more than its five-year average. As per the latest sowing report, mustard acreage was higher by 2.84% at 68.66 lakh hectare from 66.77 lakh hectare sown previous year. Major increase was observed in Rajasthan by 19% to 24.77 lakh ha, UP by 1.5% at 12.31 and MP by 2.6% at 7.78 lakh ha. In the largest-producing state (Rajasthan), the weather, too, has been conducive to growth as here was no report of pest infestation or any other problem in mustard cultivating areas. The next one-and-a-half month will be crucial as the crop is in its key growth phase. If the weather is favorable during the next 3-5 weeks, average yield will be more than last year; accordingly, mustard-seed output in the 2018-19 season would be highest in last four years. Output in the 2017-18 season is now estimated at 71 lakh tons.
Mustard-meal exports have already surpassed FY17-18, 5.6 lakh tons and are reported at 7.45 lakh tons for the first eight months of FY18-19. China lifting its ban on mustard-meal imports from India reinforced hopes that exports of the oil meal would get a fillip in the near future. The market had expected China to pick up around 500,000 tons of mustard meal from India, boosting overall export prospects. Hopes of mustard-meal exports to China endure; but such exports would impact prices in the long run.
All Indian daily arrivals were observed near to 1.15 Lakh bags with Rajasthan accounting for 45,000 bags, MP-10,000, UP-20000, Haryana and Punjab-15,000 and Gujarat-5000, and other states-20,000.
In the medium term (next 3-4 weeks), market expects prices of mustard seed to be under pressure considering the bright crop prospects and harvesting ahead.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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