NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest December report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2018-19 to 118.74 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 119.39 million bales projected in November.
The 2018-19 world production is projected 0.65 million bales lower than in November with smaller crops in Pakistan, China, India, Turkmenistan, and Turkey. These changes more than offset a 1-million-bale increase in Brazil and smaller increases in the United States and Cote d’Ivoire.
World ending stocks are projected down to 73.19 million bales as compared to 72.61 million bales estimated in November.
"Projected 2018/19 global ending stocks are nearly 600,000 bales higher this month, but at 73.2 million bales are down 7.3 million bales from the year before," the USDA said in its report.
The agency has however increased world 2018-19 beginning stocks projection at 80.45 million bales from 80.39 million bales estimated in November.
"Global trade is 600,000 bales higher, with imports up in Pakistan, India, and Malaysia, while exports are higher from Brazil, Argentina, Cote d’Ivoire, India, and Uzbekistan," the agency said.
Global consumption is also estimated down at 125.63 million bales from 126.88 million bales largely due to a 1.0-million-bale decline for China, but consumption is also lower in Pakistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan.
India
The agency has lowered India's 2018-19 production estimate at 27.50 million bales from 28 million bales. It also trimmed its forecast for India's ending stocks at 8.08 million bales than 8.58 million bales.
However, it raised its forecast for India's cotton exports and imports at 4.40 million bales and 1.60 million bales from 4.30 million bales and 1.50 million bales in November.
The agency has retained India's beginning stocks and consumption projections at 8.68 million bales and 25.30 million bales, respectively.
United States
The report has revised up its estimates for US production and ending stocks relative to last month.
US production for the 2018 crop is estimated at 18.59 million bales from 18.41 million bales, mainly due to a 300,000-bale increase in Texas.
Domestic mill use and exports are projected unchanged.
"Ending stocks, forecast at 4.4 million bales in 2018/19, are 100,000 bales above both last month and the 2017/18 estimate ," the USDA report said.
The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers is unchanged from November, 71 to 77 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 74 cents.
USDA-2018-19 (December)/(November)/ (October)/ 2017-18 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock-80.45/80.39/80.89/80.40
Production- 118.74/119.39/121.66/123.70
Import- 41.71/41.11/41.44/40.98
Consumption- 125.63/126.88/127.76/123.28
Export- 41.73/41.13/41.45/40.94
Ending Stock- 73.19/72.61/74.45/80.39
INDIA
Opening Stock- 8.68/8.68/8.68/7.88
Production- 27.50/28/28.70/29
Import- 1.60/1.50/1.50/1.68
Consumption- 25.30/25.30/25.50/24.70
Export- 4.40/4.30/4.40/5.18
Ending Stock- 8.08/8.58/8.98/8.68
US
Opening Stock- 4.30/4.30/4.30/2.75
Production- 18.59/18.41/19.76/20.92
Import- 0.01/0.01/0.01/Nil
Consumption- 3.30/3.30/3.40/3.23
Export- 15/15/15.50/15.85
Ending Stock- 4.30/4.30/5/4.30
CHINA
Opening Stock-38.02/38.02/38.02/45.92
Production- 27/27.50/27.50/27.50
Import-7/7/7/5.73
Consumption-41.50/42.50/42.50/41
Ending Stock- 30.37/29.87/29.87/38.02
BRAZIL
Opening Stock- 8.66/8.66/8.66/6.93
Production- 11/10/10/9.22
Consumption- 3.50/3.50/3.60/3.40
Export- 5.80/5.50/5.40/4.17
Ending Stock- 10.43/9.73/9.73/8.66
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock- 2.83/2.83/2.83/2.32
Production- 7.40/8/8.50/8.20
Import- 2.90/2.60/2.50/3.30
Consumption- 10.60/10.80/11/10.80
Export- 0.15/0.15/0.18/0.16
Ending Stock- 2.36/2.46/2.63/2.83
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock- 1.86/1.86/1.86/1.63
Production- 0.14/0.14/0.14/0.14
Import- 8.10/8.10/8.10/7.60
Consumption- 8/8/8/7.50
Ending Stock- 2.08/2.08/2.08/1.86
VIETNAM
Opening Stock- 1.19/1.19/1.19/0.88
Import- 7.60/7.60/7.70/6.90
Consumption- 7.50/7.50/7.50/6.60
Ending Stock- 1.29/1.29/1.39/1.19
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock- 2.94/2.94/2.94/2.19
Production- 2.50/2.50/2.50/4.70
Export- 3.60/3.70/3.60/3.92
Ending Stock- 1.81/1.71/1.81/2.94
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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