MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) – Mustard seed prices were under pressure during the week ended Nov 18 on poor buying interests from crushers followed by bearish tone in futures even selling of procured stock has been suspended by the Nafed.
Mustard seed prices earlier on Tuesday this week rose after news that Nafed suspended mustard liquidation in all states till further notice.
An official with Nafed has confirmed the news and said that the agency is not going to conduct auction from Nov 13, however he didn’t provide details or reasons about the suspension.
Nafed had procured more than 8.5 lakh tonnes of mustard seed during the rabi 2017-18 season at minimum support price (MSP) and still holding approximately 6 lakh tonnes.
The news was positive for mustard seed and prices had reacted in line with it on Tuesday, but poor sales of mustard oil and mustard cake dragged down prices in later days.
Mustard seed prices earlier on Tuesday rose to Rs 4,300 level, but settled this week down 1% from peak level at Rs 4,260/100kg at the benchmark Jaipur market.
Mustard oil and mustard cake however managed to trade steady at Rs 837-838/10kg and Rs 1,990-1,995 mainly due to poor selling interest.
Mustard seed arrivals in the country this week averaged at 1.47 lakh bags (85kg). Weekly comparision is not available due to closure of markets for Diwali holiday.
An oil crushers from Bharatpur said, “Mustard oil and mustard cake rates were steady mainly due to slow selling by millers at lower rates amid disparity.”
Mustard oil price is likely to trade sluggish due to cheaper availability of rival palm and soy oil amid bearish trend due to ample global supply.
Meanwhile in order to support exports and encourage farmers to increase oilseeds production, government is considering to raise incentives under the Merchandise Exports from India Scheme on all oilmeals to 10% of free-on-board value from the current 5%. Mustard meal attracts 5% incentive and move could benefit entire mustard chain.
However there is still concern lingering about mustard meal export to China due to stringent norms, which exporters find difficult to abide.
The customs administration of China on Oct 22 had lifted years-long ban on rapeseed meal imports from India as the government seeks to diversify sources of protein used in animal feed.
On Oct 22, China had allowed mustard meal imports from five Indian firms, but placed stringent conditions on the purchases. Traders were hopeful that the impediments to trade would be resolved soon, as the Indian government has agreed to intervene in the matter.
India used to export around 500,000 tonnes of oilmeals annually to China before the latter banned imports from India in 2012 owing to concerns about quality.
Among winter crops, planting of oilseeds has been down as farmers have covered 46.85 lakh hectare so far. In the year-ago period, oilseeds were sown in 49.50 lakh hectare. Among oilseeds, mustard/rapeseed acreage was lower by 2.51 percent at 43.34 lakh hectare from 44.46 lakh hectare.
The most-active December delivery mustard seed futures dropped for a second straight week by 0.6% to settle at Rs 4,139/100kg on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX). The contract traded within a range of Rs 4,131 to Rs 4,224.
CONCLUSION
Some temporary fall in prices can't be ruled out in mustard. However, future trend will mainly depend on sowing progress and weather developments. Downside is likely to be limited due to prospects of increase in incentives, suspension of mustard selling by Nafed and slow progress in rabi oilseeds.
TECHNICAL IDEAS: MUSTARD SEED DECEMBER - EXPECT LOWER RANGE TO BE TESTED
Resistance will be at 4163-4200-4224.
Support will be at 4127-4103-4098.
Correction to WRV-4098 can be witnessed.
Upside can resume above 4224 closing.
Accumulate at 4103 or below with a stop loss of 4004. Upside is locked to 4300.
The wider range for fluctuation is 4004 to 4300 and the momentary bias is to test the lower range of 4103-4006.
.png)
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
0 Comments 
Post Comment 
