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USDA Revises Down 2018-19 Global Cotton Production Estimate To 119.39 Million Bales

8 Nov 2018 11:11 pm
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NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest November report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2018-19 to 119.39 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 121.66 million bales projected in October.

The 2018-19 world production is projected 2.27 million bales lower than in October with decrease in expected crops in US, India, Pakistan and Turkmenistan.

World ending stocks are projected down to 72.61 million bales as compared to 74.45 million bales estimated in October.

The agency has also lowered world 2018-19 beginning stocks projection at 80.39 million bales from 80.89 million bales estimated in October.

"Historical revisions to Benin’s exports resulted in a 375,000-bale decrease in 2018/19 beginning stocks there, accounting for much of this month’s 500,000-bale decline in global beginning stocks," the USDA said in its report.

Global consumption is also estimated slightly down at 126.88 million bales from 127.76 million bales with smaller expected mill use in India, Pakistan, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, and the United States.

India

The agency has lowered India's 2018-19 production estimate at 28 million bales from 28.70 million bales. It also trimmed its forecast for India's cotton exports, comsumption and ending stocks at 4.30 million bales, 25.30 million bales and 8.58 million bales, respectively from 4.40 million bales, 25.50 million bales and 8.98 million bales in October.

However, the agency has retained India's beginning stocks projections at 8.68 million bales.

United States


The report has revised down its estimates for US production, ending stocks, consumption and exports relative to last month.

US production for the 2018 crop is estimated lower by 1.35 million bales to 18.41 million bales, mainly due to decreases in the Southeast, reflecting the impact of adverse weather.

"Domestic mill use is reduced 100,000 bales and exports are reduced 500,000 bales," the USDA report said.

"Projected ending stocks in 2018/19 are 700,000 bales lower this month, at 4.3 million bales or 24 percent of use," it said.

The marketing-year-average price received by producers is forecast between 71.0 and 77.0 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 74.0 cents, 1 cent above last month, the report said.

USDA-2018-19 (November)/(October)/2017-18 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

WORLD
Opening Stock-80.39/80.89/80.40
Production-119.39/121.66/123.70
Import-41.11/41.44/40.98
Consumption-126.88/127.76/123.28
Export-41.13/41.45/40.94
Ending Stock-72.61/74.45/80.39

INDIA
Opening Stock-8.68/8.68/7.88
Production-28/28.70/29
Import-1.50/1.50/1.68
Consumption-25.30/25.50/24.70
Export-4.30/4.40/5.18
Ending Stock-8.58/8.98/8.68

US
Opening Stock-4.30/4.30/2.75
Production-18.41/19.76/20.92
Import-0.01/0.01/Nil
Consumption-3.30/3.40/3.23
Export-15/15.50/15.85
Ending Stock-4.30/5/4.30

CHINA
Opening Stock-38.02/38.02/45.92
Production-27.50/27.50/27.50
Import-7/7/5.73
Consumption-42.50/42.50/41
Ending Stock-29.87/29.87/38.02

BRAZIL
Opening Stock-8.66/8.66/6.93
Production-10/10/9.22
Consumption-3.50/3.60/3.40
Export-5.50/5.40/4.17
Ending Stock-9.73/9.73/8.66

PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-2.83/2.83/2.32
Production-8/8.50/8.20
Import-2.60/2.50/3.30
Consumption-10.80/11/10.80
Export-0.15/0.18/0.16
Ending Stock-2.46/2.63/2.83

BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.86/1.86/1.63
Production-0.14/0.14/0.14
Import-8.10/8.10/7.60
Consumption-8/8/7.50
Ending Stock-2.08/2.08/1.86

VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.19/1.19/0.88
Import-7.60/7.70/6.90
Consumption-7.50/7.50/6.60
Ending Stock-1.29/1.39/1.19

AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-2.94/2.94/2.19
Production-2.50/2.50/4.70
Export-3.70/3.60/3.92
Ending Stock-1.71/1.81/2.94

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)

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