NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest October report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2018-19 to 121.66 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 121.97 million bales projected in September.
The 2018-19 world production is projected 0.31 million bales lower than in September with decrease in expected crops in Australia and increase for Greece and the United States.
World ending stocks are projected down 6.4 million bales from last year, largely reflecting an expected 8.2-million-bale decline in China.
"The 2018/19 global ending stocks forecast is lowered 4 percent this month as lower production and sharply lower beginning stocks offset marginally smaller consumption. Stocks are lowered mainly in India, as revisions are made to production, consumption, and loss over 2002/03-2013/14 to better reflect Indian government data (consumption) and the impact of shifting producers’ marketing patterns," the USDA said in its report.
The agency has lowered world 2018-19 beginning stocks projection at 74.45 million bales from 77.46 million bales estimated in September.
Global consumption is also estimated slightly down at 127.76 million bales from 127.94 million bales.
India
The agency has retained India's 2018-19 production estimate at 28.70 million bales. It also kept its forecast unchanged for India's cotton exports at 4.40 million bales. Similarly, the agency has retained India's consumption and import estimates at 25.50 million bales and 1.50 million bales, respectively.
India's beginning and ending stocks projections have been revised sharply downwards to 8.68 and 8.98 million bales, respectively as compared to 11.58 and 11.88 million bales estimated in September.
United States
The report has revised up its estimates for US ending stocks, based on slightly larger production and lower exports relative to last month.
US production for the 2018 crop is estimated higher by 81,000 bales to 19.76 million bales, with higher production in Texas and Georgia largely offset by lower production in the Carolinas.
"Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month, but the export forecast is reduced 200,000 bales to 15.5 million, due to reduced world trade and consumption," the USDA report said.
"Ending stocks are forecast at 5 million bales, and the resulting stocks-to-use ratio of 26 percent is slightly higher than the previous month’s forecast, and the highest since 2015/16," it said.
The forecast range for the marketing year average farm price is 69.0 to 77.0 cents per pound; the midpoint of 73.0 cents is down 2 cents from the previous month’s projection, the report said.
USDA-2018-19 (October)/(September)/2017-18 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-80.89/83.79/80.85
Production-121.66/121.97/123.53
Import-41.44/41.79/41
Consumption-127.76/127.94/123.27
Export-41.45/41.80/40.74
Ending Stock-74.45/77.46/80.89
INDIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-8.68/11.58/7.88
Production-28.70/28.70/29
Import-1.50/1.50/1.70
Consumption-25.50/25.50/24.70
Export-4.40/4.40/5.20
Ending Stock-8.98/11.88/8.68
US (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-4.30/4.30/2.75
Production-19.76/19.68/20.92
Import-0.01/0.01/Nil
Consumption-3.40/3.40/3.23
Export-15.50/15.70/15.85
Ending Stock-5/4.70/4.30
CHINA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-38.02/38.02/45.92
Production-27.50/27.50/27.50
Import-7/7/5.73
Consumption-42.50/42.50/41
Ending Stock-29.87/29.87/38.02
BRAZIL (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-8.66/8.66/6.93
Production-10/10/9.22
Consumption-3.60/3.60/3.40
Export-5.40/5.50/4.17
Ending Stock-9.73/9.63/8.66
PAKISTAN (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-2.83/2.83/2.32
Production-8.50/8.50/8.20
Import-2.50/2.50/3.30
Consumption-11/11/10.80
Export-0.18/0.18/0.16
Ending Stock-2.63/2.63/2.83
BANGLADESH (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.86/1.86/1.63
Production-0.14/0.14/0.14
Import-8.10/8.10/7.60
Consumption-8/8/7.50
Ending Stock-2.08/2.08/1.86
VIETNAM (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.19/1.19/0.88
Import-7.70/7.70/6.90
Consumption-7.50/7.50/6.60
Ending Stock-1.39/1.39/1.19
AUSTRALIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-2.94/2.94/2.19
Production-2.50/3/4.70
Export-3.60/3.90/3.92
Ending Stock-1.81/2.01/2.94
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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