Agri Canada Forecast 2017-18 Masoor Export Significantly Lower

MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - For 2017-18, lentil exports are forecast to fall significantly to 1.5 Mt. Of this total, 0.75 Mt are red lentil types with the remaining 0.75 Mt consisting of the green lentil types. The main markets are now Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the EU and Mexico. Total domestic use is forecast to be relatively unchanged at 0.6 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply to 0.8 Mt. The average price for all types and grades is forecast to be sharply lower than the previous year for all lentil types.

Large green lentil prices are expected to maintain a large premium ($325/t) over red lentil prices. During the month of June, Saskatchewan large green lentil farm gate prices fell $5/t and red lentil farm gate prices have fallen $25/t. This is largely due to good lentil crop development conditions in Saskatchewan and Alberta, including the confirmation of a higher than expected Canadian lentil seeded area by Statistics Canada for 2018.

For 2018-19, Canadian lentil seeded area decreased to 1.5 Mha, due to lower forecasted returns compared to other crops. This is a 14% fall in seeded area from 2017-18, with the majority of the decrease in red lentil types. By province, Saskatchewan accounts for 89% of the lentil area, with the remainder seeded in Alberta, Manitoba and British Columbia. Production is forecast to decrease by 7% to 2.4 Mt, with supply increasing by 11% due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise to 1.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to over 0.8 Mt due to higher total supply. The average price for all grades and types is forecast to fall from 2017-18 due to the Canadian and world supply. There is an expectation that import demand in the Indian subcontinent will continue to be similar to 2017-18.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2018-19 is forecast by the USDA at below 0.8 million acres, down 29% from 2017-18 due to lower area seeded in Montana and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2018-19 US lentil production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 420 thousand tonnes (kt), up sharply from the previous year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, the EU and Mexico.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)