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MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - For 2017-18, Canada’s exports are expected to fall by 32% from the 2016-17 level to 2.7 million tonnes (Mt). This has been largely due to a lack of demand from India. However, this has been partly offset by record exports to China and the US. Carry-out stocks in Canada are expected to rise significantly due to the lower export pace but have been partly offset by higher domestic use. The average dry pea price is expected to fall from 2016-17. Lower yellow pea prices have been partly offset by higher green and feed pea prices.
The prices of yellow dry peas are expected to maintain a $40/t crop year premium to green dry peas compared to a $6/t discount in 2016-17. During the month of June, Saskatchewan yellow pea farmgate prices were unchanged while green pea prices fell $5/t. This was largely due to the expectation that there will be an increase in Canadian green pea production for 2018-19.
For 2018-19, dry pea seeded area in Canada decreased to 1.46 million hectares (Mha), down 12% from 2017-18 despite good returns relative to other crops and continued recognition of the benefits of dry peas as part of crop rotation plan. Saskatchewan accounts for 54% of the dry pea area, Alberta for 42%, with the remainder seeded in Manitoba, British Columbia and eastern Canada. Production is forecast to fall by 12% to 3.6 Mt due to the expectations of similar yields combined with a confirmed lower area. However, supply is forecast to fall marginally to 4.3 Mt due to the higher carry-in stocks combined with a decrease in production. Exports are forecast to rise to 2.8 Mt, with China, Bangladesh and the US continuing to be Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall and be slightly lower than the five and ten-year averages. The average price is expected to fall from 2017-18, due primarily to expectations for an increase in world supply.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2018-19 is forecast by the USDA to fall by 22% from 2017-18 to below 0.9 million acres. This is largely due to an expected fall in area in Montana and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to rise by 8% to 0.7 Mt. The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to common Canadian export markets in China and the Philippines and it is expected the US will continue to expand its market share in 2018-19.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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