NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest July report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2018-19 to 120.11 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 120.40 million bales projected in June.
The 2018/19 world production is projected 290,000 bales lower than in June, as reduced US and Australian production more than offsets increases for Brazil, India, and Mexico.
The report said, "Historical revisions to China’s consumption back to 2014/15 account for most of a 3.3 million bales decline in 2018/19 world beginning stocks. World 2018/19 consumption is 1.6 million bales higher than in June, as the revisions to China’s consumption estimates carry through into the 2018/19 projection year with a 1 million bales increase. Consumption forecasts are also higher for Bangladesh, Pakistan, Brazil, and Vietnam."
The agency has projected world trade 165,000 bales higher this month as lower US exports are more than offset by increases by Brazil and China. Ending stocks are estimated 5.2 million bales lower than in June, with the largest declines in China (4.6 million) and the United States.
India
The agency has revised upwards to India's 2018-19 production estimate to 28.70 million bales from 28.50 million bales projected in June.
The department has also raised its forecast for India's cotton exports at 4.30 million bales from 4.25 million bales.
India's beginning and ending stocks projections have also been revised upwards to 12.63 and 13.33 million bales, respectively as compared to 12.48 and 13.03 million bales estimated in June. However, import and consumption estimates for India have been kept unchanged.
United States
The report has revised down its estimate for US production, exports, and stocks compared with last month.
The 1.0-million-bale decrease in the crop projection is due to higher expected abandonment based on current conditions. Beginning stocks are 200,000 bales lower due to an increase in 2017/18 exports, the USDA report said.
US 2018/19 exports estimate has been lowered by 500,000 bales to 15 million bales based on lower supplies and increased foreign competition. With no change in domestic consumption, 2018/19 ending stocks are projected at 4.0 million bales, down 700,000 bales from the June estimate and unchanged from the revised 2017/18 level, it added.
The midpoint of the projected range of the marketingyear-averageprice is raised 5 cents from last month, to 75 cents per pound, the report said.
USDA-2018-19 (July)/(June)/2017-18 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-84.96/88.21/86.94)
Production-120.11/120.40/122.76
Import-41.23/41.06/39.65
Consumption-126.95/125.35/120.77
Export-41.24/41.07/40.13
Ending Stock-77.84/83.02/88.21
INDIA
Opening Stock-12.63/12.48/11.13
Production-28.70/28.50/28.50
Import-1.50/1.50/1.80
Consumption-25.20/25.20/24.20
Export-4.30/4.25/4.75
Ending Stock-13.33/13.03/12.48
US
Opening Stock-4/4.20/2.75
Production-18.50/19.50/20.92
Import-0.01/0.01/0.01
Consumption-3.40/3.40/3.35
Export-15/15.50/16
Ending Stock-4/4.70/4.20
CHINA
Opening Stock-37.69/41.17/48.42
Production-26.50/26.50/27.50
Import-7/7/5.30
Consumption-42.50/41.50/40
Ending Stock-33.12/41.17
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-8.63/8.28/6.93
Production-9.50/9/8.90
Consumption-3.60/3.45/3.40
Export-5.40/4.90/4.20
Ending Stock-9.20/9/8.28
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-2.88/2.78/2.27
Production-8.50/8.50/8.20
Import-2.30/2.20/2.90
Consumption-10.70/10.50/10.40
Export-0.20/0.20/0.16
Ending Stock-2.76/2.76/2.78
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.86/1.86/1.63
Production-0.14/0.14/0.14
Import-8/7.90/7.40
Consumption-8/7.80/7.30
Ending Stock-1.98/2.08/1.86
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.19/1.19/0.88
Import-7.70/7.70/6.90
Consumption-7.50/7.50/6.60
Ending Stock-1.39/1.39/1.19
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-3.06/3.16/2.19
Production-3.70/3.80/4.90
Export-4.40/4.40/3.90
Ending Stock-2.32/2.52/3.16
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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