MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's dry peas (matar) export during 2017-18 is expected to drop 32% from the 2016-17 to 2.7 million tonnes (Mt) due to weaker world demand, particularly from India and Bangladesh, said Agriculture and Agriculture Food Canada (AAFC) in a monthly release.
For August to April period, Canadian exports to the US were at a record level, largely due to a sharply lower US dry pea crop.
Carry-out stocks in Canada are expected to rise sharply, despite increased domestic use, due to lower export demand. The average dry pea price is expected to decrease from the price in 2016-17, largely due to sharply lower yellow pea prices.
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Over the crop year, the price premium for yellow dry pea prices over green dry peas is expected to average $40/t, compared to the $6/t discount observed in 2016-17. During the month of May, the yellow pea farmgate prices rose by $5/t, however, green pea prices were unchanged, as export demand continued at a slow pace.
For 2018-19, Canadian dry pea seeded area is expected to fall by 5% from 2017-18 to 1.6 million hectare (Mha) due to lower returns from the previous year and slow export demand.
By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 56% of the dry pea area, Alberta 40%, with the remainder seeded in Manitoba and British Columbia.
Production is expected to decrease by 6% to 3.9 Mt due to lower area and similar yields. However, supply is forecast to increase by 3% due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase with China and the US emerging as Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline to 0.6 Mt, but well above the long term average. The average price is expected to decrease from 2017-18 due to expectations for increased world supply and lower world demand.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 20% to 0.9 million acres (Mac). This is largely due to an expected fall in area in Montana and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to fall by 12% to below 0.7 Mt.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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