USDA Revises 2018-19 Cotton Production Estimate Downward To 120.40 Million Bales

NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2018-19 to 120.40 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 121.19 million bales projected in May.

The 2018/19 world projections include lower production for China, Pakistan, and Australia offset in part for higher production for Brazil.

The report said that the world production is nearly 800,000 bales lower this month, while 2018/19 consumption is reduced only by 85,000 bales, as a 225,000-bale reduction for South Korea is largely offset by increases for Uzbekistan and Vietnam. The agency has scaled down its forecast for cotton consumption to 125.35 million bales as against 125.44 million bales.

World beginning stocks for 2018/19 are unchanged from a month earlier, but ending stocks are 725,000 bales lower, it said further.

At 83.0 million bales, 2018/19 world ending stocks are projected 5.2 million bales lower than a year earlier, but stocks outside of China are expected to rise for the third consecutive year, the USDA report added.

The agency has made no change for India's 2018-19 production estimate and kept it at 28.50 million bales, same as last month projected. The department has also retained its forecast for India's cotton exports at 4.25 million bales. However, India's beginning stocks have been pegged lower at 12.48 million tonnes as compared to 12.63 million tonnes estimated in May.

The another significant revision to this month’s US cotton supply and demand estimates is a 500,000-bale increase in 2017/18 exports, to 16.0 million bales.

US ending stocks have forecast at 4.2 million bales in 2017/18, and 4.7 million bales in 2018/19, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 25 percent. The projected range of the marketing-year-average farm price is raised 5 cents at each end to 60- 80 cents per pound.

WASDE - 578 - 27 June 2018 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-Pound Bales) ================================================================================ Supply Use Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks ================================================================================ 2018/19 Proj. World May 88.21 121.19 41.12 125.44 41.12 0.22 83.75 Jun 88.21 120.40 41.06 125.35 41.07 0.22 83.02 United States May 4.70 19.50 0.01 3.40 15.50 0.11 5.20 Jun 4.20 19.50 0.01 3.40 15.50 0.11 4.70 Total Foreign May 83.51 101.69 41.12 122.04 25.62 0.11 78.55 Jun 84.01 100.90 41.05 121.95 25.57 0.11 78.32 Major Exporters 4/ May 30.50 55.24 2.14 34.20 21.69 0.02 31.97 Jun 30.70 55.28 2.17 34.27 21.71 0.02 32.15 Central Asia 5/ May 2.77 6.52 3/ 3.66 2.57 0.00 3.06 Jun 2.73 6.50 3/ 3.72 2.58 0.00 2.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ May 2.57 5.21 3/ 0.14 4.73 0.00 2.91 Jun 2.65 5.28 3/ 0.14 4.74 0.00 3.05 S. Hemis 7/ May 12.30 14.46 0.22 4.54 9.85 0.01 12.59 Jun 12.60 14.46 0.22 4.54 9.85 0.01 12.89 Australia May 3.06 4.00 3/ 0.04 4.50 0.00 2.52 Jun 3.16 3.80 3/ 0.04 4.40 0.00 2.52 Brazil May 8.08 8.80 0.08 3.45 4.80 0.00 8.70 Jun 8.28 9.00 0.08 3.45 4.90 0.00 9.00 India May 12.63 28.50 1.50 25.20 4.25 0.00 13.18 Jun 12.48 28.50 1.50 25.20 4.25 0.00 13.03 Major Importers 8/ May 51.08 43.40 36.52 83.78 2.69 0.09 44.45 Jun 51.38 42.60 36.42 83.65 2.64 0.09 44.02 Mexico May 0.80 1.60 0.90 1.85 0.55 0.03 0.88 Jun 0.80 1.60 0.93 1.85 0.55 0.03 0.90 China May 40.97 27.00 7.00 41.50 0.05 0.00 33.42 Jun 41.17 26.50 7.00 41.50 0.05 0.00 33.12 European Union 9/ May 0.38 1.56 0.71 0.74 1.48 0.00 0.42 Jun 0.38 1.56 0.71 0.74 1.48 0.00 0.42 Turkey May 1.98 4.30 3.60 7.40 0.35 0.00 2.13 Jun 2.03 4.30 3.60 7.40 0.35 0.00 2.18 Pakistan May 2.78 8.80 2.10 10.50 0.25 0.03 2.91 Jun 2.78 8.50 2.20 10.50 0.20 0.03 2.76 Indonesia May 0.62 3/ 3.50 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.62 Jun 0.62 3/ 3.50 3.50 0.01 0.00 0.62 Thailand May 0.18 3/ 1.08 1.05 0.00 0.03 0.18 Jun 0.18 3/ 1.08 1.05 0.00 0.03 0.18 Bangladesh May 1.88 0.14 7.90 7.80 0.00 0.01 2.11 Jun 1.86 0.14 7.90 7.80 0.00 0.01 2.08 Vietnam May 1.09 3/ 7.70 7.40 0.00 0.00 1.39 Jun 1.19 3/ 7.70 7.50 0.00 0.00 1.39 (By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)