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Weekly Review: Divergent Trend In Soy Complex

26 May 2018 2:26 pm
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NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol)-


International Market Recap (Soy Complex)

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures gained over 4 percent during the week ended May 25 on renewed Chinese buying of US export shipments.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that private exporters reported sales of 312,000 metric tonnes of soybeans to China for 2018-19, along with a further 165,000 tonnes from a country of optional origin.

Export business with China slowed when the country threatened to slap retaliatory tariffs on American crops. After an apparent detente between the two countries this week, Washington signaled that Beijing would agree to import more US agricultural products. China is the largest buyer of US soybeans.

Soybean futures advanced for the fifth time in six sessions on Friday with July delivery rose 0.6 percent, to USD 10.41 1/2 a bushel and was up 4.31 percent for the week (since last Friday) at the Chicago Board of Trade.

While Aug 18 soybean ended at USD 10.46, up 6 1/4 cents, Jul 18 soybean meal at USD 380.30, up USD 3 and Jul 18 soybean oil at USD 31.34, down USD 0.37.

Traders also had one eye on political developments in Argentina, where media reports said that the government was looking to stop lowering a tax on soybean exports. The tax, currently at 27.5 percent, was being cut by half a percentage point every month through the end of 2019.

Argentine soybean farmers, among the US's main competitors, said the move will further hurt a sector which already suffered through a severe drought this season.

Analysts say that the immediate impact on exports could be limited, however, as the bad conditions left the country without much of a surplus to sell. The USDA put the country's most recent soybean harvest at 33 million metric tonnes. But it could have longer-term consequences.

International Palm Oil Recap

Malaysian palm oil futures saw their sharpest fall in seven weeks on Friday evening, weighed down by weak export demand and losses in related edible oils on the US Chicago Board of Trade and China's Dalian Commodity Exchange.

The palm oil contract for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 1.5 percent to RM2,455 (USD 617) a tonne at the close of trade, its biggest drop since April 9. It earlier fell as much as 1.8 percent to RM2,447, but was up 0.2 percent for the week in a third straight week of gains.

Malaysian shipments of palm oil products during May 1-25 fell 16.6 percent from the corresponding period last year, according to independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia on Friday while another data release by cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance later in the day showed exports in the same time period fell 13.5 percent.

Meanwhile, Singapore’s third and newest derivatives exchange Asia Pacific Exchange Pte Ltd (APEX) on Friday launched futures trading in US dollar-denominated palm oil.

APEX’s September palm olein futures contract opened at USD 635 a tonne and was last quoted down USD 9.25 at USD 628.75 a tonne with trading volume of 19,501 lots, while the November contract was down USD 1.75 at USD 636.25 a tonne after opening at USD 650 a tonne, with trading volume of 50,899 lots.

Under the contracts, palm olein is for physical delivery, on a Free on Board (FOB) basis, at Pasir Gudang and Port Klang in Malaysia, while in Indonesia, it is for delivery at Belawan and Dumai ports. Those two countries produce nearly 90 percent of the world’s palm oil, used to churn out products ranging from chocolate to soap.

APEX’s major shareholders include Chinese conglomerate CEFC China Energy, Chinese futures commission merchant Xinhu Group and other international investment funds.

Domestic Soy Complex Recap

Spot soybean ruled mostly steady while refined soy oil moved up at major markets in the country during the week. Soybean meal on the other hand softened on weak demand.

Spot Soybean ended the week mostly unchanged at Rs 3,550-3,775/100kg at the benchmark Indore market while refined soy oil rose by Rs 9 at Rs 763/10kg. However, soybean meal ruled weak at Rs 31,000 per tonne, down Rs 800.

Soybean plant rates in Madhya Pradesh stood up at Rs 3,675-3,825/100kg versus Rs 3,585-3,750, while in Maharashtra were at Rs 3,700-3,870 versus 3,700-3,875.

Soybean crush disparity stood at Rs 747.5 (-) per tonne as against Rs 770 (-) on last Friday.

India soybean meal CIF Rotterdam tentatively priced at USD 484 per tonne as against USD 436 per tonne of Argentine origin, making Indian soybean meal costlier by USD 47 in the international market as compared to USD 40. On May 18, India soybean meal tentatively CIF Rotterdam was priced at USD 478 per tonne as compared with Argentina of USD 438.

Meanwhile, domestic demand for soybean meal is poor mainly due to severe hot temperature in many parts of the country. The consumption of soybean meal usually declines in hot temperature, however with monsoon arrivals it is expected to revive to some extent, according to traders.

India shipped 45,209 tonnes of soybean meal during the month of April, sharply down from 124,374 tonnes during the same period a year ago, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) due to higher prices in the international market.

According to SEA, Indian soybean meal average FOB price (Indian port) in April 2018 stood at USD 487 per tonne, much higher from USD 386 per tonne last year.

Although soybean stock in the country is low, but outlook is mainly weighed by forecast of normal monsoon this season (June-September). Buyers are hesitant as timely monsoon will create pressure on prices sooner or later, traders said.

Further soybean acreage is expected to increase this season as farmers received better returns compared with other crops. Also there are reports that government is expected to hike soybean minimum support price (MSP) by Rs 340 at Rs 3,390/100kg for kharif 2018-19 season.

On derivatives, the most-active June soybean declined by Rs 40 at Rs 3,736/100kg on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX).

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)


       
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