Aluminium Prices Surge Across LME, SHFE, and MCX on Rate Cut Speculation and Supply Constraints

Mumbai, 08 Nov (Commoditiescontrol):Aluminium prices surged across the LME, SHFE, and MCX on November 7, buoyed by anticipation of potential rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which lifted macroeconomic sentiment. Market focus remains on global monetary policies and inflation trends, as these factors are expected to shape medium- and long-term price trajectories.

On the LME, the 3-month forward aluminium contract rose by $79, closing at $2,694.50, while the cash contract gained $83.67, settling at $2,661.72. LME aluminium stockpiles declined by 2,500 tons to 734,400 tons, reflecting a tightening global supply.

SHFE aluminium futures in China posted significant gains, with the December 2024 contract up ¥145 to close at ¥21,210.00, and the January 2025 contract rising ¥165 to ¥21,200.00. SHFE open interest climbed substantially, underscoring robust speculative activity. Rising production costs have prompted some Chinese aluminium producers to schedule maintenance, though the impact on output remains limited. Social inventory levels in China fell below the 600,000 mt threshold, impacted by transportation constraints. Tight spot alumina supply and production disruptions at select facilities have driven alumina prices higher, providing strong cost support for aluminium.

On the MCX, the November aluminium contract closed at ₹246.90, up ₹6.65, while the December contract gained ₹6.55 to settle at ₹247.20. Increased open interest on MCX points to fresh position-building.

Inventory Update:
LME aluminium stocks fell by 2,500 tons to 734,400 tons.
SHFE aluminium stocks dropped by 3,979 tons.
MCX stocks declined by 431.61 units to 2,276.57 units (as of November 5).
Outlook: With aluminium inventories at low levels and production costs rising, short-term price strength appears likely. Market participants will remain attentive to
shifts in global economic policies, inflation, and alumina supply dynamics, all of which are anticipated to drive aluminium price trends in the near term.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)