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Oilseed Commentary: Soybean to trade firm on worrying South America weather

8 Mar 2021 9:12 am
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Mumbai (Commodities Control) - U.S. soybean futures prices pushed higher on Friday, notching a fourth straight weekly gain, as dry weather in Argentina continued to fuel worries about global supplies of the oilseed.


Unfavourable dryness in Argentina and excessive rains in Brazil reinforced supply concerns.


The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said it could cut its harvest forecast for 2020/21 soy production in Argentina, the world's top soymeal exporter, if it does not rain sufficiently in key producing areas over the weeks ahead.


Record U.S. soybean crushings and exports are already projected to shrink U.S. soybean stocks to a mere 9-1/2 day supply ahead of the next North American harvest.


The U.S. Department of Agriculture will update its estimates on global supplies in a monthly report due on Tuesday.


U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop forecasts on Tuesday, is expected to further lower its estimates for 2020/21 ending stocks for soybean.


With the market looking for a possible hot and dry weather stress in Argentina or for the USDA to further tighten U.S. old-crop ending stocks, the trade looks bullish for prices.


CBOT Soybean futures are likely to trade in range $14.0/$14.4 per bushel in for coming sessions.


NCDEX Soybean futures trade lower as per our expectations today. Prices are likely to follow towards 5100/5200 Rs/Qtl.


(Commodities Control Bureau)


       
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