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USDA Reduces 2020-21 Global Soybean Ending Stocks Estimate By 1.3 MMT To 95.1 MMT

11 Jul 2020 11:50 am
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Mumbai (Commodities Control) – In its July projections, the 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month.

Global oilseed production is reduced 2.0 million tons to 604.2 million on lower rapeseed, cottonseed, and soybean production. Canola production is lowered for Canada based on updated government data. Soybean production is lowered for Canada and Uruguay, resulting in lower 2020/21 exports for both countries.

The 2020/21 global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.3 million tons to 95.1 million tons as lower stocks for Brazil and China are partly offset by higher U.S. stocks. Lower foreign stocks reflect notable balance sheet revisions for Brazil in 2019/20 and China in 2019/20 and 2020/21.

U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is projected at 122.8 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from last month, with increases for soybeans and peanuts offset with reductions for canola, sunflower seed, and cottonseed.

Soybean production is projected at 4.14 billion bushels, up 10 million on increased harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 83.0 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.2 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 49.8 bushels per acre. With higher beginning stocks, 2020/21 soybean supplies are raised 45 million bushels.

Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20. With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million.

Soybean changes for 2019/20 include higher crush, lower residual use, and higher ending stocks. Soybean residual use is reduced 50 million bushels, reflecting June 1 soybean stocks reported in the recent Grain Stocks report, and reported soybean use through May. Soybean ending stocks for 2019/20 are projected at 620 million bushels, up 35 million from last month.

For Brazil, the 2019/20 crop is increased 2 million tons to 126 million tons, reflecting higher yields. Exports are increased 4 million tons to 89 million tons, leading to a 2-million-ton reduction to ending stocks. The local year exports (February 2020-January 2021) are also increased 2.5 million tons to 79.5 million.

China’s 2019/20 balance sheet changes include a 2-million-ton increase in imports to 96 million and a 1-million-ton increase to crush, resulting in higher ending stocks.

For 2020/21, China’s higher beginning stocks are offset by higher crush, leading to lower ending stocks. With these changes, China’s year-over-year soybean meal domestic disappearance growth remains at 7%.

USDA-2019-20 (July) vs 2018-19 (In Million Metric Tons)

Opening Stock-112.74/98.60
Domestic Crush-304.16/297.33
Ending Stock-99.67/112.74

Opening Stock-24.74/11.92
Domestic Crush -58.65/56.94
Ending Stock- 16.87/24.74

Opening Stock-19.46/23.06
Domestic Crush-88.50/85.00
Ending Stock-27.25/19.46

Opening Stock-32.42/32.74
Domestic Crush- 44.25/42.53
Export- 89.00/74.59
Ending Stock- 22.77/32.42

Opening Stock-28.89/23.73
Domestic Crush- 40.80/40.57
Export- 9.00/9.10
Ending Stock- 26.00/28.89

(Commodities Control Bureau)

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