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Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

6 Mar 2017 2:22 am
 

0222 GMT [Dow Jones] New Zealand is expect to produce 301 million liters of wine, or 3% less wine in 2017 on year but will see exports grow 8% on year, says the US Department of Agriculture in a note. "All industry indications point to overseas demand continuing to be robust and wine exporters continuing to be in a grow mode." The USDA estimates that 310 million liters of wine was produced in 2016--this was forecast lower due to damage caused by a significant earthquake in November 2016.(lucy.craymer@wsj.com; @lucy_craymer)

0220 GMT - Australian retail sales rebounded in January, but the year-over-year pace remains at a relatively modest 3%. Eating out by consumers was strong in the month and remained the fastest-growing sector while household goods rebounded. UBS expects retail sales growth to eventually top a 4-5% growth rate in 2017 as the economy strengthens. That as forward-looking indicators of the job market remain upbeat, it adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
 

0220 GMT [Dow Jones] A subtle shift in tone in this year's government work report signals that yuan reform will likely take a pause this year, says Xie Dongming, an economist with OCBC. In the latest government work report that was released on Sunday, Beijing says that "the RMB exchange rate will be further liberalized and the currency's stable position in the global monetary system will be maintained." However, the old rhetoric of "maintaining the yuan relatively stable at a reasonable level" was removed from the report. The report also cut the level of detail it offered on yuan reform, suggesting that some of the urgency was going out of this initiative. (grace.zhu@wsj.com)
 

0215 GMT [Dow Jones] Despite Beijing's increased rhetoric on containing financial risks, it is targeting only moderately slower growth in money and credit supply, suggesting that maintaining steady economic growth remains the government's top priority, UBS says. Premier Li Keqiang, when opening the annual National People's Congress, set a 12% growth objective for both M2 and total social financing this year, slower than last year's target of a 13% increase for both indicators. "We expect no benchmark rate hike and only a gradual tightening of asset management regulations," the house says. (liyan.qi@wsj.com)
 

0215 GMT - AUD/USD Intraday: Further upside. The pair posted a rebound, and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period one (positive signal). The relative strength index is supported by the rising trend line since Mar 3, and stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50. To sum up, above 0.7545, look for a further upside to 0.7615 and even to 0.7640 in extension. Alternatively, only a break below 0.7545 would turn the outlook to negative and call for a new drop to 0.7520. [This piece contains the opinions of Trading Central and does not constitute personalized investment advice or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security. The author has been prohibited by Trading Central from purchasing or otherwise directly or indirectly acquiring any direct or indirect beneficial ownership of any instruments or markets for which Trading Central or its affiliates issues recommendations. To read more, visit bit.ly/1MehCU9] (analysts@tradingcentral.com)
 

0214 GMT - EUR/USD Intraday: Further advance. The pair is holding on the upside, and is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is supported by the bullish trend line since Mar 2. Hence, as long as 1.0570 holds on the downside, a further rise to 1.0630 and even to 1.0655 seems more likely to occur. Alternatively, below 1.0570, look for a return with 1.0540 and 1.0510 as targets. [This piece contains the opinions of Trading Central and does not constitute personalized investment advice or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security. The author has been prohibited by Trading Central from purchasing or otherwise directly or indirectly acquiring any direct or indirect beneficial ownership of any instruments or markets for which Trading Central or its affiliates issues recommendations. To read more, visit bit.ly/1MehCU9] (analysts@tradingcentral.com)
 

0214 GMT - USD/JPY Intraday: Key resistance at 114.60. The pair broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles. In addition, the 20-period moving average is turning down, and is about to cross below the 50-period one in sight. The relative strength index is heading downward. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. Therefore, as long as 114.60 is resistance, look for a further downside to 113.70 and even to 113.30 in extension. Alternatively, above 114.60, expect look for a new rise with 115.00 and 115.40 as targets. [This piece contains the opinions of Trading Central and does not constitute personalized investment advice or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security. The author has been prohibited by Trading Central from purchasing or otherwise directly or indirectly acquiring any direct or indirect beneficial ownership of any instruments or markets for which Trading Central or its affiliates issues recommendations. To read more, visit bit.ly/1MehCU9] (analysts@tradingcentral.com)
 

0213 GMT - EUR/GBP Intraday: Upside prevails. The pair stands above the rising 20-period moving average, and remains on the upside. Meanwhile the 50-period moving average is also ascending and should maintain a bullish bias. In addition, the relative strength index is still above the neutrality area at 50. As long as 0.8590 is not broken below, expect further rise to 0.8665 at first and to 0.8695 in extension. Only a break below the horizontal support at 0.8590 would allow for further drop to 0.8555 and to 0.8515 in extension. [This piece contains the opinions of Trading Central and does not constitute personalized investment advice or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security. The author has been prohibited by Trading Central from purchasing or otherwise directly or indirectly acquiring any direct or indirect beneficial ownership of any instruments or markets for which Trading Central or its affiliates issues recommendations. To read more, visit bit.ly/1MehCU9] (analysts@tradingcentral.com)
 

0213 GMT - EUR/JPY Intraday: Towards 121.30. The pair has been supported by its rising 20-period moving average, which remains above the 50-period moving average. And the relative strength index is well above its neutrality area at 50, and lacks downward momentum. The intraday bias should remain positive: as long as 120.50 is not broken down, further rise is preferred with 121.30 and 121.70 as targets. Alternatively, if the pair breaks below 120.50, a drop toward 119.95 and 119.50 is likely. [This piece contains the opinions of Trading Central and does not constitute personalized investment advice or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security. The author has been prohibited by Trading Central from purchasing or otherwise directly or indirectly acquiring any direct or indirect beneficial ownership of any instruments or markets for which Trading Central or its affiliates issues recommendations. To read more, visit bit.ly/1MehCU9] (analysts@tradingcentral.com)
 

0212 GMT - USD/CAD Intraday: Bullish bias above 1.3355. The pair is posting a pullback but stays above its horizontal support at 1.3355. Meanwhile the 20-period moving average is still slightly above the 50-period moving average, and the relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Therefore, even though a continuation of the consolidation in current stage cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. As long as 1.3355 is not broken below, a technical bounce is expected with 1.3405 and 1.3430 as the next targets. Only a break below 1.3355 will change the intraday outlook to negative and will call for a drop to 1.3315 and 1.3280 in extension. [This piece contains the opinions of Trading Central and does not constitute personalized investment advice or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security. The author has been prohibited by Trading Central from purchasing or otherwise directly or indirectly acquiring any direct or indirect beneficial ownership of any instruments or markets for which Trading Central or its affiliates issues recommendations. To read more, visit bit.ly/1MehCU9] (analysts@tradingcentral.com)

0149 GMT - Australian job advertisements fell 0.7% in February after January's strong 3.9% jump, though year-over-year growth was little changed at 6.9% and 7.1%, respectively, according to the report fro ANZ. The bank's head of Australian economics, David Plank, calls the sequential pullback expected given prior strength and may also reflect the seasonal-adjustment process. Unemployment has been stuck at around 5.8% the past year, and much of last year's employment growth occurred in part-time positions. Plank notes, "This is likely to weigh on wage growth and has the potential to delay the return of underlying inflation into the 2-3% target band beyond late next year." (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0140 GMT - A notable takeaway from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's annual report to the National People's Congress was that the "exchange rate will be further liberalized and the currency's stable position in the global monetary system maintained," says Tim Condon, head of research for Asia at ING. The bank expects China to modify its market-based policy to let the yuan's trade-weighted index appreciate whenever the US Dollar Index rises. The yuan index measures the currency against a basket of 13 of China's major trading partners' currencies. Analysts say looking at the yuan versus a basket of currencies could help Beijing counter the perception of a falling unit versus the dollar. (kenan.machado@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 05, 2017 21:22 ET (02:22 GMT)

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